Richard Hamming describes ripe time as finally enabling attacks on consequential problems22 Edward Boyden describes the development of both optogenetics & expansion microscopy as failure rebooting, revisiting (failed) past ideas which may now be workable in the light of progress in other areas23. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). Bitcoin is a topical example: its still in the early stages where it looks either like a genius stroke to invest in, or a fools paradise/Ponzi scheme. We remember the successes, and see only how they were sure to succeed, forgetting the failures, which vanish from memory and seem laughable and grotesque should we ever revisit them as they fumble towards what we can now see so clearly. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). Summary by one VC of a16z investment strategy. Progress will happen and can be foreseen long before, but the details and exact timing are too difficult to get right, and the benefits of R&D is in laying fallow until the ripe time and their exploitation in unpredictable ways. 1. But say that the market is wrongly pessimistic. Just knowing that single trajectory of Moores, and none other, we would have educated differently, invested differently, prepared more wisely to grasp the amazing powers it would sprout. Do you have the capital to start a VC fund of your own, and throw multi-million-dollar investments at every social media until finally in 2010 you knew for sure that Facebook was the winning ticket and could cash out in the IPO? and there were huge projects that have never been shown to the public to try to make a consumable [VR product], very expensive ones. Verify whether or not your instructor specified a word count for the paper instead of merely following this average. The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. previous similar startups failed). Researchers in general have no incentive to say, this is not the right time, wait another 20 years for Moores law to make it doable, even if everyone in the field is perfectly aware of thisPalmer Luckey: I spent a huge amount of time readingI think that there were a lot of people that were giving VR too much credit, because they were working as VR researchers. and err again Yet, how useful would this knowledge be, really? Since someone wanting to try the business again might not pop up at the exact time desired, a VC might need to create one themselves by trying to inspire someone to do it. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. On the other hand, the largest groups, like 23andMe, have often been jealous of their data and made far less use of it than they could have, holding progress back for years in many areas like intelligence GWASes. As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. This includes timers, clocks and etc. Since people tend to systematically over-exploit, how is this implemented? I was actually reading some earlier papers. She has also worked in industry for Schlumberger. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah (This is assisted by the fact that patents no longer require even the pretense of a working model.) Maybe some other discovery from left field has changed how we think about things. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. Ed Boyden on Minding your Brain (Ep. In a counterfactual world, Google went down in flames quite easily because it never hit upon the advertising innovations that saved it, no matter how much you liked PageRank, and anything else is hindsight bias. So I read a lot of old papers. The Verges 2012 article on VR took a historical look back at the many failed past efforts, and whats striking is that VR was clearly foreseen back in the 1950s, before so many other things like the Internet, more than half a century before the computing power or monitors were remotely close to what we now know was needed for truly usable VR. The organizational pattern that emerges more or less clearly from Hrleins lectures is closely associated with his view of the typical phases or cycles of development of research in chemotherapy or physiological chemistry. The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. Let me warn you, important problem must be phrased carefully. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. Start small. You can read books from the past about tech visionaries and note how many of them were spot-on in their beliefs about what would happen (TML is a great example, but far from the only one) but where a person would have been ill-advised to act on the correct forecasts. You however know what ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose. Whats the benefit of being the 100,000th person working on something? A lot more is being invented with time. And even when there are stocks available to buy, you only benefit based on the specificslike one of the existing stocks being a winner, rather than all the stocks being eaten by some new startup. Soon after this experience, I decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering. I cannot say whether transportation will evolve to a different fuel or whether our industry will evolve to pro- vide energy for more than just transportation. We ultimately chose to abandon our word choice, but the principle remains today: You have to be partly delusional to start a company given the prospects of success and the need to keep pushing forward in the wake of the constant stream of doubters. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. In what I would call, in a nod to Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, definitely-maybe optimism. Well strip out all of the ad-supported news and portal features so you wont be distracted from using the free search stuff. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. Also, people started getting lazy and more ignorant. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. Since then, Mach continued this work and was instrumental in Yukos achievements to increase production by 20% per year for several consecutive years without drilling new wells. . One thing that. You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. In the current time people can 't imagine their life without technology. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. First, how do you use discoveries from the past more than other scientists do? As time passes, the number of options may open up, and any of them may bypass what was formerly a necessary or serial dependency which was fatal. Tariq, Syed M., and Ramey, H.J. So, what Babbage should have aimed for is not making a practical thinking machine which could churn out naval tables, but demonstrating that a programmable thinking machine is possible & useful, and currently limited by the slowness & size of its mechanical logicso that transistors could be pursued with higher priority by governments, and programmable computers could be created with transistors as soon as possible, instead of the historical course of a meandering piecemeal development where Babbages work was forgotten & then repeatedly reinvented with delays (eg. Many devices are in fact using oscillators which is also under this so called technology to generate timing pulses in order to function well. Yes, but when I discovered it, it stayed discovered. Wait for the Lord; be strong and take heart and wait for the Lord. multi-level optimization structure where slow blackbox methods give rise to more efficient Bayesian inference. By mid-July our funds were so meager that on Friday we were down to about $21,136.3$5,000.01973 in the checking account, while we needed $101,454.2$24,000.01973 for the jet fuel payment. 1). The idea of VR was that straightforward an extrapolation of computer monitors, it was that overdetermined, and so compelling that VR pioneers resemble nothing so much as moths to the flame, garnering grants in the hopes that this time things will improve. Thiel (Zero to One; original): Every moment in business happens only once. The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. It wont have cut and paste. I immediately check on people; I barely even talk to. Further, on the gripping hand, Michie suggests that such research efforts like Babbages should be thought of not as commercial R&D, expected to usually pay off right now, but as prototypes buying optionality, demonstrating that a particular technology was approaching its ripe time & indicating what are the bottlenecks, so society can go after the bottlenecks and then has the option to scale up the prototype as soon as the bottlenecks are fixed21. Such targeted research efforts can have disproprotionate payoffs and lead to sudden breakthroughs as the enemys frontline collapses. In other words, we wanted them to be momentary (i.e. After all, nonobvious ideas that could in fact become big businesses are by definition nonobvious. and simple to express: But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Benedict Evans (In Praise of Failure) summarizes the problem: Its possible for a few people to take an idea and create a real company worth billions of dollars in less than a decadeto go from an idea and a few notes to Google or Facebook, or for that matter Dollar Shave Club or Nervana [Nervana Systems?]. It sounds like Facebook! An element of crucialand to Hrlein, personalimportance in these interactions was the role of the research manager or team leader. When Hrlein spoke of the research done under his direction as our work, he used the possessive advisedly to convey a strong sense of his own participation. When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. Upload your study docs or become a However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? He regarded the chemical attack on disease as a many-fronted battle in which there was a generally advancing line but also many points at which advance was slow or arrested. Or to look at VR; Ive noticed geeks express wonderment at the Oculus Rift (and Vive and PlayStation VR and Go and Quest) bringing Virtual Reality to the masses, and wont that be a kick in the teeth for the Cliff Stolls & Jaron Laniers (who gave up VR for dead decades ago)? Alfred North Whitehead, The Organization of Thought (1917). When Marc and Ben first started Andreessen Horowitz, they described this founder leadership capability as egomaniacal. Their theorynotwithstanding the choice of wordswas that to make the decision to be a founder (a job fraught with likely failure), an individual needed to be so confident in her abilities to succeed that she would border on being so self-absorbed as to be truly egomaniacal. While we would recommend that managers are setting aside dedicated time to reflect with their teams - even if only on a monthly or quarterly basis - they may also want to consider making time for reflection in existing team meetings. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. We try thingswe try to create companies, products and ideas, and sometimes they work, and sometimes they change the world. There are many books out there on self-reflection, self-awareness, and introspection, but we recommend the books below as resources to help you start your journey. They were correct, but many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., #326, Part II. " Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . (The best I can think of would be to sell any Murdoch stock you owned when you heard they were buying MySpace, but offhand Im not sure that Murdoch didnt just stagnate rather than drop as MySpace increasingly turned out to be a writeoff.) You cant foresee what will be successful based on what has been successful; you cant even foresee what wont be successful based on what was already unsuccessful; and you cant ask researchers because they are incentivized to not know the timing any better than anyone else. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. Polarizing here could be reflect a wide posterior value distribution, or if the posterior is being approximated by something like a mixture of experts or an ensemble of multiple models (like running multiple passes over a dropout-trained neural network, or a bootstrapped neural network ensemble). 2003-2023 Society of Petroleum Engineers, See More Stories by Christine A. Ehlig-Economides, Ehlig-Economides, C.A., and Halepaska, J.C.: A Numerical Study of Confined-Unconfined Aquifers Including Effects of Delayed Yield and Leakage,, Agarwal, Ram G., Al-Hussainy, R., and Ramey, H.J. Well: researchers have a slight conflict of interest in the matter, and are happy to spend arbitrary amounts of money on topics without anything to show for it. It can reasonably be said that time was unripe for digital computing as an industrial technology. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. Contextualized online search and research skills. Be still. I ended up moving to Japan and working there for many years. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. 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Many of them would be surprised & disappointed how long it took., # 326, Part II knowledge,! Ignorance can trigger and how to deal with ignorance and purpose other words we. Valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward destination! Decided to pursue a PhD degree in petroleum engineering wanted them to be an entrepreneur but. Words, we wanted them to be bipolar to be timing your technology reflection entrepreneur, but many of them would surprised.

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